Texas Early Vote Hits 5.5 Million as Candidates Target Independents

5.5 million Texans have cast early ballots, according to the Secretary of State's Office. That figure represents 29% of the 19 million people registered to vote in the state. The deadline for early voting is Friday, October 30. There is no voting scheduled for Saturday, Sunday, or Monday. Election Day occurs on Tuesday, November 3.

Wait times at early voting sites in the Austin metro area dropped on Wednesday. It is unclear if this indicates the end of a voting surge or merely a mid-week pause before a final push. Campaign strategists suggest the political flow may be shifting. If the initial Democratic surge has subsided, Republican voters may begin to increase their turnout in the final days, a pattern seen in previous elections.

Candidates are now focusing on independent voters who have not yet participated. Greg Groogan of FOX 26 discussed this shift on the Battleground Texas program. He noted that Texas suburbs are more politically purple than they were a decade ago. He believes the 2026 midterm may confirm that trend.

Greg Casar, the incumbent Democrat representing Congressional District 37, has already voted. He urged remaining voters to ignore late-stage negative advertising. "In the last days before an election, that's when you start to see posts built to try to make you feel angry or feel scared. But that's exactly when it makes most sense to take a beat and take a breath. Thousands of likes is not proof that something is true and neither is a confident influencer," Casar said.

Lauren Pena, Casar's Republican challenger in District 37, outlined her grassroots strategy for the remaining days. She expects Republican turnout to rise. Pena identified a large population of independents in the district as a key target group. "You're going to see Republicans start to pick up. But I want to tell you, here in our district, there is a significant population of people that identify as independents. And I think that that's really where we're going to see these votes start to come in," Pena said.

Current turnout is slightly ahead of the 2022 early vote totals. However, it remains well below the rates recorded in recent presidential election years. The state saw 9.7 million early votes in 2020 and 9.1 million in 2024. Steven Dial of FOX4 questioned who campaigns were reaching with their final ads. "We're seeing that blitz as a matter of, okay. Now how many people have already voted, like, what, 5 million in Texas? So, who was it reaching, and who's left to be going out to vote and be influenced," Dial asked.