Bills and Vikings Face Off in Week 9 as Markets Price Touchdowns
Prediction markets value Justin Jefferson over Josh Allen for the first score, while Buffalo's quarterback leads the rushing touchdown count.
By Renata Mehta ·
The Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings enter Monday night's Week 9 matchup with identical 6-1 records. Both teams have posted winning marks in their first seven contests of the 2026 season. The clash on Monday Night Football will determine which side maintains its hold on the upper tier of the NFL standings.
Prediction markets on Kalshi have assigned specific probabilities to the teams' players scoring the first touchdown. Justin Jefferson of the Vikings holds the highest price for the opening score at $0.10. Josh Allen of the Bills is priced at $0.15, placing him second among all listed offensive players. James Cook, also of Buffalo, shares the $0.15 valuation.
Analysts point to Allen's consistency near the goal line as a primary factor in his standing. He has rushed for nine touchdowns this season and has recorded at least one rushing score in all but one game. His performance as a runner in short-yardage situations provides a steady baseline for betting models.
Conversely, the valuation of Jefferson reflects weaknesses in the Bills' defensive coverage. Opposing wide receivers have scored 11 receiving touchdowns against Buffalo this year. That total far exceeds the one touchdown from tight ends and the three combined rushing scores from running backs and quarterbacks. The market appears to favor the matchup between Jefferson and the Buffalo secondary.
The Vikings will start Carson Wentz at quarterback after Kyler Murray exited the team due to a hamstring injury. Jefferson caught two passing touchdowns from Wentz in Week 1. This prior chemistry may influence the dynamics of the game, potentially benefiting the Vikings' passing attack.
Defensive factors also enter the calculation. The Vikings' defense is aggressive and has a history of disrupting Buffalo's offense. Allen has thrown five interceptions this season and has fumbled four times, with one of those fumbles resulting in a turnover. The risk of early mistakes for the Bills' signal caller keeps the market's pricing of the first score competitive.
