Data Centers May Reverse a Decade of US Carbon Gains

A new analysis from the Sierra Club warns that the rapid expansion of data centers could erase fifteen years of progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The report projects that the US power sector will release 42 percent more carbon dioxide by 2030 than it did in 2025. This increase would result from building additional fossil fuel infrastructure to meet the electricity demands of artificial intelligence projects.

The study estimates that CO2 emissions from electricity generation will jump by 618 million tons by the end of the decade. That amount is equivalent to the annual carbon pollution generated by 128,788,523 homes. The Sierra Club’s figures are higher than earlier forecasts from other groups. Academic researchers published a study in June suggesting that data center and crypto mine demand could push power sector emissions up by 28 percent by 2030 compared to a scenario with no data center growth.

US net greenhouse gas emissions have declined from a peak of about 6.58 billion metric tons in 2007 to approximately 5.35 billion metric tons in 2025. However, the trend reversed last year as data centers drove up electricity demand. The current administration is incentivizing the construction of fossil fuel infrastructure for these facilities while rolling back pollution regulations and stalling renewable energy projects.

A separate report from the Environmental Defense Fund published this month indicates the US is planning to build more fossil fuel capacity than it has in a decade. The final impact depends on how many planned projects are completed and what technology powers them. The Sierra Club’s projection assumes that gas plants built for data centers will become the primary source of new energy.