Democrats capture House as Senate gains put Republican control at risk

Democrats have secured control of the US House of Representatives and are advancing toward a possible Senate majority, with midterm victories extending into territory Republicans had expected to defend. Results available on November 4 show Democratic gains across several states, although outstanding contests will determine whether the party also takes the Senate.

Among the biggest surprises was Annie Andrews's Senate victory over Darline Graham in South Carolina. Graham had been appointed following the death of her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham. Just months earlier, few analysts considered the seat competitive. Andrews's win gave Democrats their second Republican-held Senate seat of the night, leaving them two short of the four gains needed for control.

The first gain came in North Carolina, where former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper defeated Republican Party insider Michael Whatley for an open seat. That race and Senator Jon Ossoff's successful re-election campaign in Georgia delivered comfortable Democratic victories, despite expectations a year earlier that both would be closely contested.

The Senate focus has shifted to counting in Texas, Kansas and Ohio, where Republicans hold the seats at stake. CBS News, the BBC's US partner, rates the Texas and Kansas contests as leaning Democratic. In Texas, the governor's race is also considered a toss-up, a marked change from last year, when Republican incumbent Greg Abbott was viewed as the overwhelming favourite.

In the House, Democrats have won a majority for the first time since 2022. Florida Republicans failed to capture any of three Democratic-held seats whose boundaries the Republican-controlled state legislature had redrawn to improve their chances. Other Florida contests that Republicans expected to win comfortably have become close fights. Democrats also captured open seats in western North Carolina and Kentucky and appear positioned for further gains in Virginia and Indiana.

Strong Democratic turnout, especially among black voters in the South, has helped drive those results. Andrews substantially exceeded Kamala Harris's 2024 presidential performance in South Carolina's majority-black counties. Democrats have also regained support among Hispanic voters in Florida who backed Republicans two years earlier, and Democratic candidates lead again in Miami-Dade County, which Trump carried in 2024.

Florida nevertheless remains a relative bright spot for Republicans and still appears to lean right overall. Senator Ashley Moody narrowly secured re-election, while congressman Byron Donalds narrowly won his campaign for governor.

The broader results suggest an electorate turning against President Donald Trump and his party. Geographic and demographic differences mean Democratic strength in eastern states does not guarantee comparable outcomes nationwide. Early returns from the heartland, however, appear consistent with the pattern emerging along the East Coast.