Failed Hegseth impeachment vote serves as early warning for incoming Democratic majority

Democrats have not yet taken the majority, but their first post-election test of governing ability ended in failure this week, when the House could not advance an impeachment effort against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Eleven Democrats were no-shows for the vote. Based on the math, if those 11 had been present and no additional Republicans had shown up, the attempt would have moved forward. Only one Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who led the effort, voted in favor, despite an election that produced GOP wipeouts driven in no small measure by the Iran war. Republicans still control the floor, and a Democratic speaker could have held the vote open longer for the missing members to cast their ballots.

Among the 11 absent Democrats was former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who had flown back to San Francisco for a veterans' event. Pelosi, who is retiring, built her reputation on caucus discipline: she knew where the votes were, who was voting how and why, and she did not move forward with efforts that lacked the votes. Hakeem Jeffries, the heir apparent Democratic leader, is set to hold the largest majority in Congress since the early 1990s, and his leadership is already being scrutinized against that standard.

The episode also raises a broader question about whether impeachment drives are what voters want. A Reuters/Ipsos poll taken after the election found that 8 in 10 people think Democrats' focus in the first 100 days should be the cost of living, three-quarters cited lowering health care costs, 7 in 10 pointed to gas prices, and 6 in 10 named ending the Iran war and eliminating President Trump's tariffs. By contrast, only 40% said investigating the Trump administration should be a priority early on, though 71% of Democrats said so, compared with 36% of independents. Almost two-thirds, including half of Democrats, worry the party will spend too much time on investigations.

On impeaching Trump specifically, only 33% said it would be good for the country, while 63% of Democrats and 30% of independents agreed. More than half of respondents said Democrats should at least make efforts to work with the Trump administration, a view shared by only 40% of Democrats.

Critics argue the Hegseth vote backfired and strengthened his standing, as the White House and Republicans rallied around him. Even Republicans who harbor misgivings about Hegseth, and who along with Vice President Vance view the Iran war as the main reason for the midterm losses, find opposing Democrats far more unifying. The fight gave Republicans a chance to go on offense rather than discuss health care, the cost of living or gas prices.

Asked on PBS NewsHour this week whether Democrats would impeach more Trump officials, Jeffries said, "We will cross that bridge when we get to it." He has also stressed affordability, saying, "We're committed to driving down the high cost of living in every area," listing housing, health care, groceries, gas and caregiving as part of "making this country affordable again for everyone."

With majorities in both the House and Senate, Democrats face tests of priorities, timing, messaging and discipline that could shape perceptions of the party's competence heading into the 2028 presidential election. The Ipsos poll gives Democrats wide leads on which party has a better plan for health care (42% to 23%), the cost of living (40% to 25%) and the economy (37% to 30%). Yet only 47% said Democrats are focused on the issues important to them, including just 40% of independents, and only 44% expressed confidence that the party puts the public's best interests above personal ones. The political wind may be at Democrats' backs, but the jury is still out on confidence in their leadership.