Kurum Launches COP31 in Antalya with 35% Electrification Goal
Negotiations begin Nov. 9-20 as the 1.5C limit is confirmed lost and oil prices spike from the Iran war.
By Renata Mehta ·
Global average temperatures will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement that is now mathematically out of reach. Turkish Environment Minister Murat Kurum, serving as the summit president, confirmed this reality on the eve of the opening day. "This is the first COP where it is clear beyond a reasonable doubt that the world will overshoot the 1.5-degree target," Kurum said. "We will not look away, and we will not lower our ambition." The statement sets the tone for the Conference of the Parties, or COP31, which begins Monday in Antalya, Turkey.
The summit arrives during a year of severe climate impacts and energy disruptions. Deadly heat waves swept across Europe, and climate change played a role in devastating floods in Nepal. Simultaneously, the war in Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. This blockage has driven up global prices for gasoline, oil, and essential agricultural products like fertilizers and pesticides. The economic pressure is forcing governments to reconsider energy policies, with many looking to increase investment in wind and solar power to secure long-term stability.
Kurum has shifted the focus from setting new, often unmet, targets to executing existing promises. His proposed "Action Agenda" centers on electrification. The goal is to raise the share of electricity in the global energy mix from 21% to 35% by 2035. This shift relies heavily on renewable sources to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The agenda also includes specific steps to cut methane, a potent greenhouse gas, and to build cities that can withstand rising temperatures and extreme weather events.
Negotiations are scheduled to run from Nov. 9 to Nov. 20. Delegates will also address the funding gap for poorer nations. These countries require financial support to adapt to climate impacts and to transition their economies away from fossil fuels. This topic remains contentious, as previous summits have struggled to reach consensus on the cost of these transitions. The final texts from COP29 in Azerbaijan and COP30 in Brazil did not even mention fuels, marking a retreat from the agreement reached at COP28 in Dubai, where delegates committed to transitioning away from fossil fuels.
The United States, the world's second-largest polluter after China, will not be in the room. President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from climate negotiations when he took office for a second term in January 2025. U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell acknowledged the challenge of the absent superpower. "No single COP is a silver bullet that can stop climate change overnight," Stiell said. "But every recent COP has made essential progress. COP31 in Antalya will, too."
In a departure from previous formats, COP31 is jointly organized by Turkey and Australia. The two nations competed for the host role and reached a compromise: Turkey is the official host, while Australia leads the negotiations. Both countries face criticism for their heavy reliance on coal, a dynamic that adds complexity to the discussions on fossil fuel transitions. Delegates will begin formal negotiations on Monday in the Mediterranean resort city.
The summit takes place in Antalya, a coastal city on Turkey's Mediterranean coast. The venue has been prepared to host thousands of delegates, activists, and government officials. The physical setting reflects the dual focus of the event: a resort destination that serves as a global hub for urgent environmental policy. The opening ceremony marks the start of twelve days of intensive talks aimed at bridging the gap between climate science and political action.
