NFL Week 10 predictions: Upset picks, projected stat lines, fantasy sleepers and touchdown scorers

Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season began with the Commanders defeating the Giants on Thursday night, and 13 games remain on the schedule. ESPN's experts have assembled 15 predictions for the Sunday and Monday action, spanning upset picks, projected stat lines, fantasy football sleepers, likely touchdown scorers and a handful of wild-card forecasts.

Betting analyst Pamela Maldonado likes two underdogs to win outright, starting with Carolina, a 2.5-point underdog at New Orleans. She notes that Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is getting the ball out more quickly without sacrificing downfield chances, which could matter against a Saints defense allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt, creating big-play opportunities for Tetairoa McMillan. With starting center Erik McCoy out Sunday because of a biceps injury and the running game producing little, more stress falls on Saints quarterback Tyler Shough, giving Carolina a path to win.

Maldonado also takes Pittsburgh, a 3.5-point underdog at Cincinnati. Running back Jaylen Warren gives the Steelers a way to control the game after piling up 176 total yards in Pittsburgh's Week 3 win over the Bengals, who keep surrendering long runs. Cincinnati also struggles to defend the middle of the field, where quarterback Aaron Rodgers has strong options in wide receiver Germie Bernard and tight end Darnell Washington. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow will get his points, Maldonado writes, but Pittsburgh can answer without asking Rodgers to force deep throws.

Analytics writer Seth Walder projects Dolphins wide receiver Malik Washington for 11 targets, 7 receptions, 78 receiving yards and a touchdown against Indianapolis. Washington owns an 82 open score, tied with Garrett Wilson for second best, but just a 38 catch score, a profile that often precedes increased production, even with backup quarterback Kyle McCord throwing to him. Washington should line up against Colts nickel cornerback Justin Walley, who missed the past two games with a knee injury and is allowing 1.8 yards per coverage snap, well above the 1.1 average.

Walder also forecasts Cardinals tight end Trey McBride for 13 targets, 9 receptions and 99 yards as quarterback Carson Beck makes his NFL debut, with Michael Wilson out for the season with a neck injury and 23 percent of targets against the Rams' defense going to tight ends, the sixth-highest rate in the league. In addition, he predicts Chargers defensive tackle Justin Eboigbe, who had 6.0 sacks a year ago but only 0.5 this season, will record 1.0 sack and 4 pressures Monday against a Ravens line featuring right guard John Simpson, who owns a sixth-percentile pass block win rate, and center Cam Jurgens, last at his position in that metric since joining the Ravens in Week 7.

Fantasy writer Eric Moody's sleepers include Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, rostered in 35.4 percent of ESPN leagues. Rodgers has averaged 8.9 fantasy points over his past two games as Pittsburgh leaned on its running game, but he threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns against Cincinnati in Week 3, and the Bengals allow 17.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Moody also highlights Patriots running back Corey Kiner, who rushed for 55 yards and a touchdown on eight carries against Green Bay and could lead New England's backfield against Detroit with Rhamondre Stevenson questionable with a knee tendon issue and TreVeyon Henderson out, and Rams wide receiver Tutu Atwell, who could see heavy targets against an Arizona defense allowing 32.2 fantasy points per game to wide receivers with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams sidelined.

Analyst Matt Bowen's touchdown scorers start with Seahawks running back Jadarian Price, who had 78 total yards against Arizona in Week 9 and, in Bowen's view, will score his first pro touchdown off a screen pass against the Raiders. He also picks 49ers tight end George Kittle, who has seen at least seven targets in three straight games and faces a Dallas defense vulnerable to tight ends pressing the seams, with San Francisco converting 84.6 percent of red zone trips into touchdowns. His third pick is Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard, who has a rushing score in three of his past five games and faces a Saints team allowing 133.9 rushing yards per game and 11 rushing touchdowns this season.

Analyst Ben Solak closes with four wild-card predictions. He expects Rams undrafted wide receiver CJ Daniels to score a touchdown in his first NFL action, with Nacua, Adams and Jordan Whittington all on injured reserve, arguing the 6-foot-2, 205-pound Daniels offers the size that Konata Mumpfield and Tutu Atwell lack on third downs and in the red zone.

Solak also predicts four combined missed field goals in Chiefs-Falcons, with Kansas City sticking with Harrison Butker despite a 12-for-19 start and a 6-for-13 mark from 40-plus yards, while Atlanta signed Jake Moody after releasing Nick Folk. He expects the Raiders to score on a trick play in quarterback Fernando Mendoza's first start, with coach Klint Kubiak using knowledge from his time as Seattle's offensive coordinator. Finally, he forecasts Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Jets quarterback Geno Smith combining for 600 passing yards, with the 2-7 Jets pushing for an emphatic home win as coach Aaron Glenn looks for his first division victory after an 0-8 start.