Washington Commanders Favored to Beat Giants in Week 10 Matchup

The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated the upcoming Thursday Night Football game between the New York Giants and the Washington Commanders 10,000 times. In those simulations, Washington is projected to win 53% of the time. This prediction holds even though the Commanders are listed as underdogs at +115 odds, meaning a bettor must risk $100 to profit $115.

The Giants hold the lead in the NFC East with a 5-2-1 record. However, their wins have not been dominant. All five victories came against teams with losing records, and four of those games were decided by one score. The Commanders enter the matchup with a 2-5-1 record. The two teams played to a tie in their first meeting this season in Washington. That game marked the return of Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels after he missed two weeks due to an elbow injury.

Daniels has never lost to the Giants in his career. Since that initial tie, Washington has beaten the Philadelphia Eagles and suffered one-score losses to the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams. New York will start J.J. McCarthy at quarterback, who missed part of last week's game against the Eagles due to a hip pointer. McCarthy has been the Giants starter since Week 6. Despite the Giants' higher win total, the model favors the healthier Commanders offense.

The SportsLine team of experts also offered specific player props for the contest. R.J. White, an NFL expert for the group, selected Washington running back Rachaad White to exceed 55.5 total rushing and receiving yards. White has topped 57 yards from scrimmage in three consecutive games. In the first meeting against the Giants, the defense limited White to under 30 rushing yards on seven carries. White noted that the Giants defense prioritized stopping Daniels with his legs in that first game. He expects that defensive focus to open opportunities for him as a receiver this time. White recorded at least one big play in his last three games as a result of that dual-threat usage.

Megan Shoup, another expert in the SportsLine group, backed New York receiver Malik Nabers to surpass 67.5 receiving yards. Nabers recorded 121 receiving yards against Washington five weeks ago. He dropped to 43 receiving yards in the Giants' most recent game against the Eagles. Since McCarthy entered the lineup, Nabers has accounted for 34% of the team's targets and 37% of its air yards. Shoup believes Nabers will return to a level closer to 100 receiving yards rather than staying near the current line.

The model has maintained a 62-52 record on top-rated picks since 2024. It is up more than $5,000 for players who wagered $100 on those selections. The three picks for the Giants and Commanders game include the Commanders to win, Rachaad White over 55.5 total yards, and Malik Nabers over 67.5 receiving yards. Combining these three selections into a same-game parlay at BetMGM Sportsbook yields odds of +450. That means a bettor risking $100 would profit $450 if all three outcomes occur. The game is scheduled for Thursday evening in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

BetMGM offers new users a bonus code that provides $150 in bonus bets if their first wager wins, or up to $1,500 in bonus bets if that initial wager loses. The specific amount depends on the user's location. The sportsbook provides tools for responsible gaming, including gaming limits, timeout options, and a live chat feature. It also lists contact information for the 1-800-MY-RESET helpline, which is available by phone or text 24 hours a day, seven days a week.