Russia sinks four cargo ships near Bulgaria in new bid to strangle Ukrainian grain exports

Ukrainian authorities accused Russia of sinking four cargo ships just outside Bulgarian territorial waters in two separate operations this month. The vessels were damaged by aerial and surface drones, an action officials described as a warning that Ukrainian grain exports through NATO waters may no longer be safe. Bulgaria is a member of both the European Union and NATO.

European officials allege that Russian shadow warfare has intensified across the continent. Fighter jets from Moscow have reportedly veered into the airspace of Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia to test reaction times. Suspected Russian drones have also been downed over Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states. In the Baltic region, masked individuals from the Belarusian side of the border have pushed groups of migrants toward Latvia, damaging border infrastructure and removing surveillance equipment in the process.

Latvian Ambassador Ieva Cesniece linked these actions to Russia’s performance in Ukraine. She stated that as Russia appears weaker on the Ukrainian front, it tests European resilience to weaken NATO and EU support. Olena Tregub, head of Ukraine’s Independent Anti-Corruption Commission, noted that deterrence requires convincing the adversary that operations will become costly. She argued that Europe has not done enough to disrupt the financing and logistics behind these incidents.

Intelligence agencies are reporting a shift toward more aggressive tactics. Representatives from five EU intelligence agencies told the Financial Times that Russia is seeking to target European defence executives and supply chains. This follows a report that Russia planted incendiary devices in the offices of defence companies Rohde and Schwarz and Helsing in Munich. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova declared that European defence industries supplying Ukraine are legitimate targets for Moscow.

Czech spy chief Michal Koudelka warned in September that a Russian military attack on a NATO member could occur in months. He suggested that Europe is currently slow to view sabotage and cyberattacks as the early stages of a multidimensional war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy questioned why Europe does not speak more loudly about drone tests against NATO countries, warning that the conversation will change when ballistic missiles are involved.

Zelenskyy addressed the European Council on October 16, stating that the war will cost 155 billion euros next year. He requested at least 70 billion euros in additional funding from Europe to increase drone production. He noted that Ukraine has developed its own weapons and strategy since 2023, striking oil installations and weapons factories deep inside Russian territory.

Oleksandr Danylyuk, a Russian warfare expert with the Royal United Services Institute, said Russians are limited only by their capabilities because there is no reaction from Europe. He proposed that NATO place more forward troops in the Baltic states to create deterrence by denial. He also suggested increasing support to Ukraine by 10 or 20 percent each time a Russian intelligence operation is detected in Europe.