Trump’s shifting Iran stance leaves peace efforts uncertain after midterm losses

President Donald Trump’s changing messages about the Iran war have left regional mediators uncertain whether Washington intends to pursue a negotiated settlement. Since Republicans lost control of Congress in last week’s midterm elections, Trump has suggested that further major attacks are unlikely while also casting doubt on the need for more peace talks.

The day after the elections, Trump acknowledged that the conflict and its disruption of the global economy had contributed to Republican losses, though he defended the decision to go to war. After meeting Qatar’s prime minister at the White House early this week, he said major new strikes would probably be unnecessary and described the war as effectively finished militarily.

By Thursday, however, Trump said the United States no longer needed an agreement with Tehran. He instructed Vice President JD Vance, who led earlier negotiations with Iran, to concentrate on the administration’s domestic campaign against fraud. Trump also continued to threaten military action, saying American forces were monitoring Pickaxe Mountain, a facility associated with Iran’s nuclear program.

Qatar is seeking an interim arrangement to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz while preserving the possibility of further American and Iranian negotiations. Two Middle East diplomats familiar with those efforts, speaking anonymously because of the subject’s sensitivity, said the process had appeared promising after the White House meeting. Trump’s subsequent remarks left them awaiting clarification about whether he was abandoning negotiations or adopting a bargaining position after the elections.

Vance had been considering renewed contact with senior Iranian negotiators, according to a person familiar with the matter who was not authorized to speak publicly. Trump knew about those deliberations but believed Iran was not negotiating in good faith, the person said. The president’s instruction to Vance followed a Wall Street Journal report about the possibility of renewed talks.

Shipping security remains unresolved. The United Nations reported that October recorded more incidents involving commercial vessels in the contested waters than any month since February. Nevertheless, with oil shipments through the strait approaching prewar levels, Trump believes Gulf countries could potentially negotiate arrangements for the waterway with Iran, according to the person familiar with the matter.

The White House did not directly address questions about Trump’s remarks. Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued Friday that economic pressure had weakened Iran enough to make further military action unnecessary. Earlier in the week, he said Washington remained open to mediation and an acceptable agreement. Iran, meanwhile, will not discuss its nuclear program until Washington accepts several conditions it wants included in a ceasefire. Iranian deputy U.N. ambassador Gholamhossein Darzi said Friday that diplomacy remained possible but warned of retaliation if American or Israeli bombing resumed.

The uncertainty is expected to follow Trump during next week’s visit to the Philippines and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings in Shenzhen, China. An unprecedented three-way summit there with China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin is expected to include discussions of Iran and the three countries’ nuclear stockpiles.

Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, expects the stalemate to continue alongside the American naval blockade restricting Iranian crude exports. He said economic pressure offered Trump a more appealing course than escalation or concessions, while leaving room for Vance to return to negotiations if Iran appeared ready for serious engagement.