Abbott, Hinojosa Poll at 48-46 as Texas Senate Race Shows Talarico Ahead

Texas Governor Greg Abbott holds 48% to Democrat Gina Hinojosa's 46% in the governor's race, according to a survey conducted Oct. 13 to 21 among 1,000 registered voters in the state, with an approximate margin of error of 3.8 points. In the U.S. Senate contest, Democrat James Talarico posts 50% against Republican Ken Paxton's 45%. Republicans lead the generic congressional ballot 48% to 45%. All three fall within the poll's margin of error.

The survey also included 980 registered Latino voters, with an approximate margin of error of 3.7 points. Among those voters, Hinojosa leads Abbott 52% to 43%, Talarico leads Paxton 55% to 37%, and Democrats lead the generic House ballot 52% to 41%. Regional breaks vary sharply: in North Texas, Abbott runs about 10 points ahead of Hinojosa among Latino voters and Republicans lead the House ballot by roughly 11, while the Senate race is close to even. In Central Texas, Democrats post leads of roughly 19 to 21 points across the three contests.

A prior N+ Univision/YouGov Texas survey ran Aug. 27 to Sept. 4. Statewide numbers moved little between the two. Among Latino voters aged 18 to 34, Talarico's margin grew from 27 points to 34. Among Latino voters 65 and older, his margin fell from 13 points to 3. Paxton's lead among voters 65 and older statewide grew from 14 points to 24. Hinojosa's statewide advantage among voters aged 35 to 49 narrowed from 14 points to 2.

Among Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024, 65% say they are comfortable with that vote and would make it again. Another 13% have some doubts, 10% have serious doubts, and 8% express regret. Among those who say they would vote for Trump again, about 5% currently support Hinojosa and 9% support Talarico. Among those with doubts or regret, support rises to about 34% for Hinojosa and 44% for Talarico.

On immigration, 62% of Latino voters say the country should pursue border security and a path to citizenship for long-term undocumented residents who pass a background check at the same time, while 29% say border security should be settled first. Some 56% say law enforcement has gone too far. In all, 43% worry that they or someone close to them could be directly affected by current enforcement, 57% report little or no confidence in ICE, and 38% are more worried than in recent years about detention based on skin color or appearance.

Household finances press on the same electorate: 42% of Latino voters say their finances are worse than a year ago, against 23% who say better. Food costs are the leading source of strain at 63%, followed by gasoline and transportation at 50% and utilities at 37%. Asked for the single most important issue in deciding their vote, 27% of Latino voters name jobs and cost of living, and 16% name corruption in the political system. Those same two issues top the statewide list at 27% and 15%.

On 12 issues tested among Latino voters, Democrats lead on 11, including immigrant rights at 51% to 27% and cost of living at 46% to 30%. Republicans hold a narrow edge on border security, 40% to 38%.

Data centers divide the same group. Among Latino voters, 48% oppose building data centers in their own communities and 25% support them. In Central Texas, about seven in 10 Latino voters report little or no influence over where data centers get built.