Israel Election Ends Without Majority

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot both fell short of the 61 seats required to govern Israel after voters cast ballots on October 27. The Central Elections Committee's initial count, released on October 28, places Likud first with 27 seats. Netanyahu's broader bloc is projected to hold 54 seats, while Eisenkot's camp is projected at 50. Neither figure reaches the majority threshold, forcing both sides to seek additional partners immediately.

Exit polls published on election night painted a picture of a tightly contested race. Kan 11 and Channel 13 reported the two blocs tied at 51 seats each. Channel 12 gave the advantage to Netanyahu, projecting 52 seats for his camp against 49 for Eisenkot. Channel 15 offered the most favorable projection for the incumbent, showing his bloc with 55 seats and the opposition with 49.

The balance of power likely rests with the Arab-led parties Ra'am and the Joint List. Exit polls suggest these groups will win a combined 16 to 19 seats. However, political dynamics complicate coalition building. Netanyahu has described a government that includes Arab parties as shameful. Leaders in the Jewish-led opposition have similarly ruled out governing with them. This leaves both sides with arithmetically possible but politically difficult options.

Netanyahu's bloc includes Likud, the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, and the far-right parties Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit. Religious Zionism is led by Bezalel Smotrich, and Otzma Yehudit is led by Itamar Ben-Gvir. Eisenkot's bloc comprises his Yashar party, the Together list associated with former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu, and the Democrats led by Yair Golan.

Once results are certified, the president will designate the Knesset member considered most likely to form a majority. That individual has 28 days to assemble a government, with a possible extension of 14 days. If that attempt fails, another lawmaker may be given a chance. If no one succeeds, Israel may return to the polls, a scenario that occurred repeatedly between 2019 and 2022.

Netanyahu, who has served 19 years across three stints as Israel's longest-serving prime minister, remains caretaker during these negotiations. He is currently standing trial on corruption charges, which he denies. Official results are due on November 4, though coalition talks may extend well beyond that date.