Starship test could leave NASA without a ride home
SpaceX plans a full Earth orbit for its new rocket today, accelerating the shift away from the Falcon 9 that currently ferries astronauts to the station.
By Renata Mehta ·
SpaceX will attempt to launch its Starship rocket from South Texas later today. The mission aims to circle the globe and land vertically at the same pad 22.5 hours after lift off. Success would mark the most ambitious test of the vehicle to date and signal a faster transition away from the company's older Falcon 9 rocket.
The shift affects American access to space. The Falcon 9 launches the Dragon capsule, which is currently the only U.S. spacecraft capable of transporting astronauts to and from the International Space Station. SpaceX has indicated it will stop flying the Falcon 9 to focus resources on Starship, which is used for Starlink satellites and future Mars missions.
NASA contracted with SpaceX for three additional station flights in September. Those missions would keep Dragon flying through 2028 if flown in six month intervals. The space station is scheduled to retire in 2030. This timeline leaves a potential gap in crewed launch capability for the agency.
Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space, noted that Dragon became the standard for crew transport due to its reliability. He stated there is no strong commercial market for human spaceflight, with NASA as the primary customer. Building new capsules is expensive and time consuming, limiting the number of competitors willing to enter the market.
SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell compared the Dragon capsule to a minivan, noting it is unsuitable for the six month trip to Mars. She implied Boeing could take over station flights, citing the investment Boeing received to develop its Starliner capsule. However, Starliner has faced technical issues, including a nine month crewed stay in 2024 and a planned crewed test in 2028.
The retirement of Falcon 9 also impacts commercial launch demand. Quilty Space estimates a shortage of 150 launches between now and 2030. The U.S. Space Force said it secured Falcon 9 launches through 2028 and expects other suppliers to cover the remainder. SpaceX reported $2.1 billion in launch revenue through September, compared to $12.8 billion from Starlink and $10.9 billion from its AI business.
Elon Musk said in 2014 that a NASA contract saved the company from bankruptcy. He described the moment of receiving the deal as a moment where he could barely hold the phone. Tim Farrar of TMF associates said the launch business is small for SpaceX now, describing the missions as small potatoes relative to the company's other revenues.
