Knesset Math: 70,000 Returnees Return for Tuesday's Vote

An estimated 70,000 Israelis residing abroad have returned or are scheduled to arrive in Israel before Tuesday's Knesset elections.

The number is an estimate, and no precise figures exist to confirm the total count of returning voters. If the race between political blocs remains close, these ballots could influence the final outcome.

To assess the potential impact, one must consider the vote threshold for a single Knesset seat. In the 2022 election, approximately 36,000 votes were required to secure one seat. Analysts suggest the threshold may rise to between 38,000 and 39,000 votes this year due to population growth and higher expected turnout.

Political preferences among these returnees remain uncertain. While some estimates indicate a leaning toward the change bloc, no reliable data exists to verify this. Even if 60% of the returning voters supported that bloc, the result would add at most one to one-and-a-half seats. The election results will be the only definitive measure of whether this demographic tipped the balance.

The influx of travelers has also affected the hospitality sector. Many visitors are combining voting with family visits or vacations, and a portion are staying with relatives or in personally owned apartments. Those booking hotels have driven up occupancy rates. Africa Israel Hotels reported a 23% increase in occupancy for election week compared to October of last year. Alex Eliyahu, the chain's marketing director, noted that more Israelis are pairing "exercising their democratic right with a short vacation."

Fattal Hotels also observed higher bookings, particularly in central Israel. Maya Shalev, the vice president of marketing and sales, stated that bookings are up compared to last year, "apparently due to the elections." The chain is offering discounts of up to 30% and an additional 10% for loyalty club members from October 25 to 29. Shalev added that bookings from abroad for these dates may indicate Israelis are coming specifically to vote.

Some returnees traveled to attend the October Council rally at Hostages Square in Tel Aviv on Saturday night. Judy, who has lived in the US for over 50 years, said she flew from Miami to vote and will return in early November. She noted that many Israelis in Miami and Los Angeles tend to vote for the Right, but she and others differ. Ofer, from New York, said his family flew in specifically to vote and will return the day after the elections. Nurit, from the South Sharon area, attended with her son-in-law and 18-year-old grandson, who arrived from Canada to vote for the first time. Zehava, who flew in from New York, said she plans to vote for Likud and had planned the visit in advance. Some travelers faced disruptions, with flydubai canceling flights after an attempted terrorist attack, which pushed up prices for other routes. Racheli, from Ramat Gan, is vacationing in Vietnam and will miss the vote for the first time, a situation she described as heartbreaking.