Bills take top seed in new NFL playoff projection
A computer simulation projects Buffalo wins the Super Bowl over Minnesota, while the Cowboys claim the NFC East title.
By Grace Almasi ·
The Buffalo Bills are projected to win the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. The model places the Bills at 12.97% odds of lifting the Lombardi Trophy, the highest probability of any team. The Minnesota Vikings follow at 11.15%, making them the second most likely contenders.
The projection was generated by Stephen Oh, an analytics expert for CBS Sports. He simulated the remaining 165 regular season games and all 13 playoff contests. This week's model differs from last week's forecast because two previously undefeated teams, the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, lost in Week 7.
The Bills currently hold a 5-1 record. They are projected to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Chiefs, also at 5-1, are projected to win the AFC West. The Jacksonville Jaguars, 4-2, are the projected AFC South champion, and the Cincinnati Bengals, 4-2, are the projected AFC North champion.
In the NFC, the Minnesota Vikings are the only remaining undefeated team in the league. They hold a 6-0 record and are projected to capture the No. 1 seed. The 49ers, 6-1, are the projected NFC West champion. The Dallas Cowboys, 3-4, are projected to win the NFC East. The model assigns the Cowboys a 38.5% chance of winning that division, slightly ahead of the New York Giants at 37.3%.
The simulation shows the Bills defeating the Kansas City Chiefs 28-23 in the AFC Championship game. Josh Allen, who is 0-4 against Patrick Mahomes in the postseason, is projected to end that streak. In the NFC, the Vikings beat the 49ers 23-20. The model notes that Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores will devise a game plan to slow down the San Francisco offense.
The final score in the simulated Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium is 26-21 in favor of the Bills. The matchup would feature two teams that have combined for four Super Bowl appearances without a win. The Bills are 0-4 and the Vikings are 0-4 in previous championship games.
This is the first time this season that the Bills have been projected to win the title. Previous weekly forecasts favored the Rams, Ravens, Seahawks, Chiefs, or 49ers. Only three other teams have a winning probability higher than 8%. The Chiefs stand at 9.5%, the 49ers at 8.4%, and the Jaguars at 8.3%.
Source: CBS Sports
